Too much early focus on political development and not enough on economic development is hindering the ability of post-conflict African nations to recover from years of war and violence, said Dr. Paul Collier, a widely respected author and Oxford economist who spoke at U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) headquarters March 3, 2010. Outside militaries "have an important role, a complementary role to economic development and the gradual improvement of the politics," said Collier, author of the 2007 book "The Bottom Billion: Why Poor Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It," as well as the 2009 book "Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places." Collier, professor of economics and director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University, addressed the AFRICOM staff as part of the Commander's Speaker Series, an initiative to bring in speakers with diverse viewpoints to the command to share ideas and thoughts. His talk reflected his own opinions, not those of U.S. Africa Command or its staff. Collier's presentation focused on key political, economic, and security issues in post-conflict environments in Africa, based on his most recent book, "Wars, Guns and Votes." Post-Conflict Elections According to Collier, the international community has overinvested in early politics as a solution to a post-conflict nation's instability and security issues, focusing too heavily on elections and not enough on the development of institutions and processes. Statistically, the effects of post-conflict elections on a nation's security are actually more negative than positive. "In the year before the election, it's true, the risks of going back into conflict go down significantly," Collier said. Unfortunately, in the year after the election, they go up, and they go up more than they've gone down. So the net effect of the election is to make the situation more dangerous, not less." The traditional business model used by the international community in dealing with post-conflict nations includes bringing in peacekeepers, holding an election, and then immediately withdrawing the peacekeepers at a time when the government is still very vulnerable. "For the last 15 years, that business model is dominated by the idea that as long as you can have elections, elections will produce a legitimate and accountable government. And once you've got a legitimate, accountable government, the sources of instability will go away." Collier argues that in post-conflict situations, elections are not the solution to instability. On the contrary, the risk of reversion to conflict during the first post-conflict decade historically has been 40 percent. He also added that these post-conflict reversions have been responsible for half of the world's civil wars. Emphasizing that democracy depends on much more than elections, Collier stated that it is important for functioning institutions to be in place prior to elections. "[Elections] are events. But institutions are checks and balances on power. Institutions are not events, they are processes and they take a long time to build up," Collier continued. "If you hold the events before you've got the processes in place, you get crooked events. Once a government comes to power after a crooked election, it's no incentive for building processes which preserve the integrity of the elections." Economies in Post-Conflict Environments Among the most significant elements lacking in politics is the economy, said Collier, who listed three main economic characteristics leading to insecurity in Africa: poverty, stagnation, and the presence of valuable natural resources. Sheer poverty makes a country more prone to viruses and prevents a government from investing in security. Stagnation leads to lack of jobs, and without anything to do, young men are at high risk for recruitment and rebellion. The presence of natural resources, if not used properly, provide rebel groups with the means to finance activities. Collier said that post-conflict environments can easily achieve 10 percent economic growth in the post-conflict decades. A period of rapid growth combined with clean governments can contribute to a more positive shift in people's mindsets and makes politics easier and more efficient. Ways Forward Collier expressed uncertainty in his assessment of Africa's future, much of which he said depends on how the international community and African governments handle natural resource extraction over the next two decades. He described Africa as "the last frontier for resource discovery," attracting extraction companies from China, India, Brazil, as well as the United States and Europe. The question of how these resources will affect insecurity depends on how the resources are used. "If the resource extraction can raise incomes, then higher income will build a more secure future," said Collier. "If the resource extraction doesn't raise incomes, but just sits there as honey pots, it will increase insecurity." He added U.S. Africa Command staff members should be prepared to address the security consequences of whatever plays out over the next two decades relating to resource extraction. Collier believes the U.S. military can play an important external role to developing African nations, particularly in the support it can provide in the years following an election. Uniquely in post-conflict situations, Collier said, a nation's government should actually downsize its military to signal that the war is over and the government has no plans to renege on its deal. In the meantime, external militaries have an important role in keeping the peace during these critical years. "External militaries have an important role, a complementary role to economic development and the gradual improvement of the politics," Collier said. "Without it, you may never get the economic recovery if the security situation is not safe enough to get the investments." Although there is no quick fix, he said the international community must intervene with a holistic approach involving security, aid, democracy building, and trade policy. Collier told the Africa Command staff members he is impressed with what the command has been doing so far. "You're a new organization, but you're actually doing a lot. I was amazed at how much you're doing and how seriously you're learning as well as doing." Encouraging staff to take an active role in supporting the oft-stated African goal of "African solutions to African problems," Collier said, "You can provide both the logistics, the capacity building, and the coordinating, the catalytic mechanism that gets the 'African solution' to be more than a slogan. You can build a reality." The complete transcript of Collier's presentation is available at http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=4137&lang=,